Mr. Toyoda's other major concern was the affordability of EVs for consumers. EVs will be a huge problem if they restrict people's mobility, i.e., freedom.
Mr. Toyoda is shrewdly prescient. Mary Barra and her ilk are mere rent-seekers.
The concerns are due to the culture in Japan and the cars. In most cities in Japan cars are expensive to buy, own and park. We see this with their Kei cars that are micro machines.
The real trouble is most people do not have parking near their homes and most cars are so small it would be difficult to install batteries in them that hold much range.
The Japan market is not like ours and while many things have been blamed for the lack of imports to Japan like Tarriffs and just national pride. The truth is America imports few cars for the most part as we do not sell the small Kei sized cars that make up most of their market. Also we sell so few cars with RHD.
This time Toyota is the company with the most to lose in this global reset of the automotive industry. They were a leader and now they have to work to retain the lead. This reset on the other hand has given new life to GM and VW to where they can overcome past sins to take a lead if executed correctly.
Toyota banked on Hybrids but the fact is a Hybrid is still very expensive to make as you still have to deal with the emission development along with Battery tech. In this deal you can not serve two masters and save any money.
With the other large countries all going to the same terms this has left Toyoda out in the cold accept for the third world where charging is going to be a problem for a while. But there is little money there.
The truth is Mr Toyoda blinked. They are moving to a BEV program now and are behind. They can and will catch up but for once they will have to learn to compete again. This time it will not be against old bloated companies cruising along on old reputations but newly reduced size companies that are actively moving forward ahead of them for once.
As for Autonomy. That one is going to take a while as it will be a difficult transition. Most people do not trust it and often it will fail due to a human interfering with it.
Then you have a jungle of many legal ramifications of who is responsible or liable when things go wrong and they will. Just think how often you need to reboot.
The cost of the cars is not going to be an issues as batteries continue to drop and scale comes into play. The real cost will be Electric. What is that going to cost in the future as it will not be competitive as it has been with oil.
Very simple EV models are not going to dominate in just a year or two. The infrastruture is being addressed and it will be able to handle things once it does become an issue. Also even now the areas where it is a problem it is in limited areas as most areas are just fine. Much issues are to do in California of their own poor planning.
As for Batteries they will be big time recycle as the value of the materials used will be in high demand. Also Solid State batteries are about 10 years out.
Win you have to consider this transition is going to take 20-30 years. This deal is like skeet shooting you need to lead the target and look what is ahead not what is at hand now.
That is why so many of the now claimed problems are false is they don't consider the time line that the MFGs have set and when these goals will be accomplished. They would not be moving forward with this unless these goal will be attained Read up at the SAE in their on line publications and they show where things are going not where they are.
Oh Piff! Not at this point. Development got them to where they can find an advantage for themselves. They are not fighting the government because now they are flipping the market with a new reset and Mr Toyoda is not happy about it. But he has now caved too.
The market can be fully changed here as those who get this right will lead and those who get it wrong will struggle.
The only threat Government is now that their emissions standards are going to be near impossible to meet but that is just a side effect now.
Read up on QuantumScape cell’s. They are expected to be available in 2023. They are smaller denser and un effected by cold. Once in production prices will fall in 7-10 years to reach even the lower priced models.
You still miss the time line. While this is a start all ICE is not going to just vanish over night. Many of you energy issues are 30 and 40 years out not next year.
California is their own special issue. Texas had to have an ice storm that took out most wires. Also the way they had the worthless wind,ills integrated was wrong. It Is being addressed.
Fact: If 80% of all cars become EV, this would lead to a total increase of 10-15% in electricity consumption.
So far, the market entry of EVs has been very predictable and the electric grid is constantly being developed in parallel. Current EV trends show low to moderate energy uptake rates.
The Projected growth in EV will not drive an immediate or substantial increase in total electrical power grid power demand , according to a study by McKinsey & Company. This means EV’s aren’t likely to cause any abrupt surprises or disruptions in our power supply and there is no need for new electricity-generation capacity in the near future.
If we take Germany as an example, EV growth won’t cause any large increases in power demand through 2030. On the contrary, EVs could add 1% to the total and require about five extra gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity. That amount could grow to roughly 4% by 2050, which would only require an additional capacity of about 20 GW. Moreover, this new-build capacity will likely involve renewables, including wind and solar power, with some gas-powered generation.
At the same time, electrical vehicles are 5-6 more energy efficient than the best internal combustion engines (ICE) vehicle. In passenger cars, EVs consume 25% the amount of energy in comparison to ICE vehicles. E-trucks consume about 50% of their diesel equivalents’ own energy consumption.
This means that when a majority of the vehicles on our streets are electric, the total amount of energy consumed in transport is significantly less than what it is now. And electric vehicles will only continue to grow more efficient with development over time.
Okay. The P/E for Georgia power, who coordinates their buying and selling, analyzes the trends and plans the future expansions is wrong? You think they operate in a vacuum?
I will correct myself, thank you, I made a phone call this evening. It is 34.5 Vogtle power plants for 50%. And here comes the data…
This entire premise is based off the false idea that to generate electricity 1 kWh is equal to 3412 BTU. Which it is, mathematically. But the actual thermal BTU from petroleum fuel (essentially heating oil) is 10,854btu/kWh.
The BTU of reformulated E10, what we out here are required to call “gasoline” is 111,836 BTU/gal vs 138,500 for heating oil. (These can vary, but we’re going to assume a constant and eliminate air temp, humidity, and fuel quality as variables).
There are 272 Million private automobiles and the average mileage traveled is 12,500 per year. Again, we will assume this for comparison purposes.
The average BEV car is around 0.33 kWh/mi, some are better and some are worse - same as ICE.
Average SUV is 0.45kWh/mi.
at a 50/50 SUV vs Car average, 0.39kWh is the average “economy” and our baseline for total grid demand calcs.
12,500 miles per year at 0.33 kWh/mi = 4125 kWh per year. 4125 *10,854 btu/kWh, / 111,836 = 400 gallons of gasoline for equivalent heating BTU.
12,500 miles / 400 gallons = 31.25 mpg.
For the SUV = 19.9 mpg.
where is the 2-4x efficiency? It isn’t there. The thermal efficiency - combustion to motive power, it isn’t there. But, if one where to use the purely mathematical formula a kWh is equal to 3412 BTU, suddenly electrics are 3.18x more efficient.
but wait, there’s more…
so what, they are equivalent to a pretty decent ICE, no big, right? A 20 gallon gasoline tank filled with our E10 donkey wiz gasoline, 20 gal * 111,836 BTU/gal = 206 kWh battery. What?!
35 gallon tank in the truck? 360kWh equivalent.
This is THEIR data, not mine.
but what about that 120 power plants? Turns out that includes the predicted needs as coal and fuel oil plants come off-line and predicted increased grid demand from all-electric developments. My bad. The real number is 35. Well, 34.5. If 50% of the fleet, with an average mileage of 12,500 miles, is replaced with a 50/50 split of typical BEV sedans and SUVs.
Vogtle = 1.92e^10 kWhr/yr.
136 Million cars * 12,500 miles/year * 0.39kWh/mile = 6.63e^11 kWh.
6.63e^11 / 1.92e^10 = 34.53 additional Vogtle nuke plants to meet the energy demand.
Granted, 120 new plants was wrong.
That’s cars plus grid growth and decommissioned coal and fuel oil plants.
The data is here for all to see.
BEVs have ZERO to do with the environment. It is ALL about control. Do you think there will be 35 new nuclear generating stations built to meet this demand? And what about the REST of the grid growth?
4-corners coal plant is decommissioned, it was roughly the same size as Vogtle. 1 plant, in rural New Mexico…
And this doesn’t even touch on resource mining. Don’t mind the child slave labor for Cobalt, the real environmental impact of Lithium mining and processing, that’s in Africa and South America. We need to virtue signal and protect the environment in the USA.
The absurdity is in the premise and the data clearly points out the emperor has no clothes.
Ooh, struck a nerve eh?
That figure is based on 10-40 mile travel in an urban setting and it pertains to carbon emissions, not efficiency. That is the DOE study that focused on reducing vehicle CO2 emissions, but it doesn’t account for transmission and charging losses, where BEVs lose much of their total efficiency gain.
The problem here is you assume automakers are doing this to save the planet. That is not the case. It is all about cost and money.
Hybrids are subjected to the escalating cost of meeting emissions and the development cost are escalating while the cost of EV development will decrease over time.
I do agree there are many things being done for income redistribution in attempts for more globalization. They attack our country daily and have infiltrated parts of our goverment through the progressive political folks.
This EV thing started out like that but the automakers continue to drive cost down and see there is more in it for the economically. Also many see it as a way to reset the industry to take advantage to move their position up. This is one reason why Toyota has been against change as they had a pretty secure place but now will have to get dirty competing again.
I fully know the automakers aren’t into saving the planet, 100%. But, they are beholden to those who crave power. Power that comes from control. And control that comes vis-à-vis regulating movement, commerce, and activity.
increasing emissions regs are an issue for everyone, but off-shoring the costs associated with supportive tech needed to make BEVs viable head to head with ICEs assumes no pass-through. Unless a person is completely ignorant or willfully ignoring the true costs, ICEs and ICE Hybrids make fiscal sense and will for quite some time. Of course through legislation the market will change.
That said, why no mileage tax on electrics? Yeah… don’t be distracted by one hand, as the other picks your pocket.
The automakers should lobby for sensible regulations, but are too busy begging.
I get it, you’re in the industry, but let me tell you the reality: the majority don’t want this. Forcing it upon people will fail miserably. Toyota demonstrated that incremental improvements on a known and proven system net sales and confidence. Jumping head-first in, smacking your neck, and spending years trying to walk again is the GM way. Volt? Marketing disaster. Bolt? Fires and recalls. The Cruze diesel? Gone. Can we work on that Cruze diesel, get it cleaner, put a hybrid system in there? You know, like GM worked on in the 90s?
But, we’re making bolts lighter, and installing annoying start-stop tech, and auto braking for driving while influencing.
This is like an engineering board meeting at Morton Thiokol - hey, did you guys know these o-rings shrink when cold? Meh, what’s the worst they can happen?Or in some Atlanta room with high back chairs - okay everyone, say hello to “New Coke”!
Say hello to your BEV future. Charging takes 8-10 hours at home. Just hire an electrician to run a 50 Amp 240 volt circuit to your garage. 2 cars? Oh, well that’s 2 circuits. Probably need more service. What’s that, you live in apartment or park along the street? Oh, maybe you should walk. However, if you can find a level 3 charger with no waiting, only 30-45 minutes.
Worried about battery fires? So are we, but this is the future, and you WILL like it.
Ford here is the present deal. It has gone far beyond the save the planet crap. MFGs fought this until they finally found that in the next 20 years they could attain the range and cost people require and even lower charge times.
2015 KpH was around $1500 if I recall and today it is now below $100. It is expected to be $36 by 2030. So the cost will end up dropping. This is all the while development cost of ICW has rose at a record rate and is only getting more expensive.
Automakers expect to retain cost and still increase income with EV models. Once the main development cost are made back they will be much cheaper to build and develop.
Also automakers are wanting to be tech companies not old time MFGs. The stock prices today are showing what it does. GM is at record highs and Ford with their EV news have finally climbed over $10 for the first time in a long time.
We all need to learn what and why things are going on because there is a lot of info on the web that is wrong. Lies become truths.
While not everything is perfect yet it is far from the end of the world as some see it. Yes it is change and change is not always easy for everyone.
In my case I work in the racing industry and I am watching many of my companies I work with scramble to find their place in the future. I watch with interest to what this will do to my work.
I also warn that we all should really be more focused on the preservation of vintage cars and and the products like proper fuel to enjoy them. There is still great risk bureaucrats could restrict our fuel or pass laws for us to drive our cars. Already in England they are trying to pass a law any modified car can not be driven on the street. They claim it for safety but the truth is they already get yearly inspections at MOT and there is no worry for safety.
I pray companies band together like Hagerty and others to fight for our rights to enjoy our cars and preserve them for the future. It is one thing to go EV but another to take away perfectly restored historic vehicles.