Unlikely Skeptic: Japan Inc. expresses doubts about the all-electric future

[Hagerty]

Skeptics of the autonomous, battery-electric, carbon-free future heavily hawked by the auto industry have found an unlikely ally in the nation of Japan. Or, at least, in Akio Toyoda, the president of Toyota Motor Corp.
https://www.hagerty.com/media/magazine-features/unlikely-skeptic-japan-inc-expresses-doubts-about-th...

[CitationMan]

Mr. Toyoda's other major concern was the affordability of EVs for consumers. EVs will be a huge problem if they restrict people's mobility, i.e., freedom.

Mr. Toyoda is shrewdly prescient. Mary Barra and her ilk are mere rent-seekers.

[bradleydad]

China has shown the world that EV's can be affordable by eliminating all the electronic stuff consumers don't need and building basic EV's equipped like afordable ICE cars being produced day.

[Oldimpala]

Still doesn't solve the limitations of electricity distribution, range, and environmental destruction in their production.

The platform won't work without wholesale changes in design and operation, plus rebuilding every country's infrastructure. It's just not attainable.

[CitationMan]

I do not like what China has shown to the world.

[limoguy]

I've thought the same. Toyota has proven the hybrid concept. It works and is durable, as can be seen by the number of Prius operated by taxi companies. The incremental cost of the hybrid system is more than covered by fuel savings. They use a fuel for which we already have infrastructure. Those who see an imminent electric future seriously underestimate the challenges.

[hyperv6]

The concerns are due to the culture in Japan and the  cars.  In most cities in Japan cars are expensive to buy, own and park. We see this with their Kei cars that are micro machines. 

The real trouble is most people do not have parking near their homes and most cars are so small it would be difficult to install batteries in them that hold much range. 

The Japan market is not like ours and while many things have been blamed for the lack of imports to Japan like Tarriffs and just national pride. The truth is America imports few cars for the most part as we do not sell the small Kei sized cars that make up most of their market. Also we sell so few cars with RHD. 

This time Toyota is the company with the most to lose in this global reset of the automotive industry. They were a leader and now they have to work to retain the lead. This reset on the other hand has given new life to GM and VW to where they can overcome past sins to take a lead if executed correctly. 

Toyota banked on Hybrids but the fact is a Hybrid is still very expensive to make as you still have to deal with the emission development along with Battery tech. In this deal you can not serve two masters and save any  money. 

With the other large countries all going to the same terms this has left Toyoda out in the cold accept for the third world where charging is going to be a problem for a while. But there is little money there. 

The truth is Mr Toyoda blinked. They are moving to a BEV program now and are behind. They can and will catch up but for once they will have to learn to compete again. This time it will not be against old bloated companies cruising along on old reputations but newly reduced size companies that are actively moving forward ahead of them for once. 

As for Autonomy. That one is going to take a while as it will be a difficult transition. Most people do not trust it and often it will fail due to a human interfering with it. 

Then you have a jungle of many legal ramifications of who is responsible or liable when things go wrong and they will. Just think how often you need to reboot. 

The cost of the cars is not going to be an issues as batteries continue to drop and scale comes into play. The real cost will be Electric. What is that going to cost in the future as it will not be competitive as it has been with oil. 

[win59]

What about the fact that neither here nor in Japan is there the infrastructure to support all-electric vehicle fleets? And the toxic waste problem presented by all those rare-earth batteries?

[hyperv6]

Very simple EV models are not going to dominate in just a year or two. The infrastruture is being addressed and it will be able to handle things once it does become an issue. Also even now the areas where it is a problem it is in limited areas as most areas are just fine. Much issues are to do in California of their own poor planning. 

As for Batteries they will be big time recycle as the value of the materials used will be in high demand. Also Solid State batteries are about 10 years out. 

Win you have to consider this transition is going to take 20-30 years. This deal is like skeet shooting you need to lead the target and look what is ahead not what is at hand now. 

That is why so many of the now claimed problems are false is they don't consider the time line that the MFGs have set and when these goals will be accomplished. They would not be moving forward with this unless these goal will be attained Read up at the SAE in their on line publications and they show where things are going not where they are. 

[limoguy]

Oh, piff. If the market were headed toward electrification I would be more confident. Instead we have car companies trying to stay ahead of governmental market decrees. If centralized, top-down plans worked so well, the USSR would be the predominant economy in the world.

[Meporsche]

You certainly have that right.

[hyperv6]

Oh Piff!  Not at this point. Development got them to where they can find an advantage for themselves. They are not fighting the government because now they are flipping the market with a new reset and Mr Toyoda is not happy about it. But he has now caved too. 

The market can be fully changed here as those who get this right will lead and those who get it wrong will struggle. 

The only threat Government is now that their emissions standards are going to be near impossible to meet but that is just a side effect now. 

[TrustyRusty]

There is no USSR.

[Oldimpala]

Solid State batteries have been ten years out for a long time. Much like fusion. Both exist, neither are commercially viable.

I work in telecom; I can speak to infrastructure. It's gonna take fifty years to rebuild the power grid, if the incentive is there. New power plants to generate the electricity? At a minimum, a decade from planning to generating it's first commercial kilowatt. Each.

Plus, the push is there to bury power lines (low voltage stuff; less than 11kV) and all other infrastructure. If not, expect more wildlife fires and service disruptions to overtaxed infrastructure. That's incredibly expensive and time consuming to go house by house with a ditch witch.

Leading the target, to use your analogy, is one thing. Squeezing the trigger before loading a pigeon in the thrower is where we are today..

I've read the SAE's paperwork on it, they're not discussing the other half of the equation (sustaining the product they built), merely that they have the ability to mass produce the electric vehicles in the first place.

[limoguy]

Very well stated.

[hyperv6]

Read up on QuantumScape cell’s. They are expected to be available in 2023. They are smaller denser and un effected by cold. Once in production prices will fall in 7-10 years to reach even the lower priced models. 

You still miss the time line. While this is a start all ICE is not going to just vanish over night. Many of you energy issues are 30 and 40 years out not next year.

[Oldimpala]

Energy issues begin before that.

I live in a city with a relatively modern power grid, and a huge Hydroelectric plant a few miles away (I'm in Buffalo.) Our grid, except for the rural areas, was last completely reworked in the 90s. That puts us ahead of most of the country; the NY PSC forced reinvestment a lot more aggressively than the rest of the country.

Speaking with my peers at the electric grid company, if between 30 and 40% of home have a *single* electric car, not 30-40% of the fleet, our grid can't handle it. We can also import power from our friendly neighbors to the North; and we do so.

We've shut down all the coal plants in NY (Good), but we haven't replaced them with anything else because it's cheaper to import Canadian energy than make our own (Bad), because when they need to replace the energy created by burning gasoline with stored electricity? Are they going to give it to us, or keep it for themselves?

Again, these are questions that need to be addressed in the next 5 years, not now. Why do I think this isn't going to happen? Because your power company knows it's not attainable; and it's why they're not moving.
I could counter QuantumScape with HyTech Hydrogen in Washington state. Had the pleasure of meeting them at SEMA. And their product is in the wild, in fleets, unlike QuantumScape. One could be installed in your car, today. One is still in a lab, and they're working on perfecting technology (yes, I'm aware of their press releases last fall.)

Also, remember QS's giant achievement, that they can retain an 80% capacity with 800 charge cycles. So, every two years my EV drops a fifth of it's range? That's the problem with lithium iron phosphate; depositing on the anode/cathode. Do you think I'd accept that my wife's GLE or my E-Wagon drops 20% functionality every two years? I keep my daily drivers a decade plus; I'd still like to get to the store and back on a charge.
In the interim, I'll look at the antiques in the garage; they're as functional as the day they rolled out of a GM/Citroen/MG/Benz factory.

So many problems, so many solutions "Just around the corner." Yet we never seem to get to the corner.

Toyoda is right.

[Oldimpala]

I had a typo above; "Again, these are questions that need to be addressed in the next 5 years, not now." should read...

"not 20 years from now."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/climate/gm-electric-cars-power-grid.html

Citation re: the grid. Their solution? Stagger charging times. Swell. It's not like people work 8-5 or anything, and they'll be plugging in at 6p, unplugging at 7a or something.

And none of that will work, at all, without bidirectional communication in the grid. Which, wait for it.... Is just around the corner.

[BMD4800]

The grid…

The grid demands a consistent, reliable, predictable baseline supply and the ability to increase supply based on demand.

The New York Times article is full-on mentally deficient nonsense for the peanut gallery. Full stop.

You know what powers the grid? At night, when demand is less, all over the US and Canada, power companies pump water uphill to refill reservoirs so that the next demand during periods of peak demand, they can release the water again.

And some people are talking about BEVs and boosting the grid.

I swear, I’ll give some of you the secret handshake. We can dine on some of our free range tasty animals and fresh citrus and veggies.

[mrbav]

Canada and USA are slowly becoming third world in comparison to Europe. Most European countries have buried their powerlines

[Oldimpala]

True.

They also have governments that mandated it (I'd be alright with that), and... Kinda got to re-do the majority of their infrastructure in the mid-1940s, when we knew better. We never had that forced reboot.
Lots of our telephone and electric right of ways have been in place since the telegraph.
We still have paper cased, lead lined cables from the 40s in the air, in service, in rural America. That'd never fly in Europe.

[BMD4800]

$$$

Buried power lines have fewer problems.

Fewer problems require fewer solutions.

Fewer solutions requires fewer politicians.

Corrupt politicians LOVE third world politics.

[PRScott]

Lithium ion batteries are already being recycled and the infrastructure to recharge batteries is already there. Because of the demise of the incandescent light bulb most electric producers have excess capacity.

[limoguy]

Excess capacity? Didn't I see a headline that authorities asked people not to charge their cars because there were brownouts? Are brownouts seen regularly in California and now Texas during times of high demand? The electric industry forecasts serious deficits three to five years out. Not enough generation and not enough transmission. Not to mention the last quarter mile challenge, upgrading infrastructure through to the home power outlet.

[hyperv6]

California is their own special issue. Texas had to have an ice storm that took out most wires. Also the way they had the worthless wind,ills integrated was wrong. It Is being addressed. 

[Oldimpala]

Absolutely not true.

We're only stable in our power grid because we import; we have very little excess capacity on the East Coast. We're talking single digits, and we knock on that every time the average temperature creeps above 80. I get "high use warnings" in my email, and on our emergency response networks at work all summer....


The west? Texas? Do we even need to talk about that?

[hyperv6]

Fact: If 80% of all cars become EV, this would lead to a total increase of 10-15% in electricity consumption. 

So far, the market entry of EVs has been very predictable and the electric grid is constantly being developed in parallel. Current EV trends show low to moderate energy uptake rates.

The Projected growth in EV will not drive an immediate or substantial increase in total electrical power grid power demand , according to a study by McKinsey & Company. This means EV’s aren’t likely to cause any abrupt surprises or disruptions in our power supply and there is no need for new electricity-generation capacity in the near future.

If we take Germany as an example, EV growth won’t cause any large increases in power demand through 2030. On the contrary, EVs could add 1% to the total and require about five extra gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity. That amount could grow to roughly 4% by 2050, which would only require an additional capacity of about 20 GW. Moreover, this new-build capacity will likely involve renewables, including wind and solar power, with some gas-powered generation.

At the same time, electrical vehicles are 5-6 more energy efficient  than the best internal combustion engines (ICE) vehicle. In passenger cars, EVs consume 25% the amount of energy in comparison to ICE vehicles. E-trucks consume about 50% of their diesel equivalents’ own energy consumption. 

This means that when a majority of the vehicles on our streets are electric, the total amount of energy consumed in transport is significantly less than what it is now. And electric vehicles will only continue to grow more efficient with development over time. 

[BMD4800]

Your data is incorrect.


GA Power stated a new nuke plant every month for 10 years to replace 50% of gasoline use with electricity.

[hyperv6]

Your data is wrong. That is just an absurd statement. 

[BMD4800]

Okay.  The P/E for Georgia power, who coordinates their buying and selling, analyzes the trends and plans the future expansions is wrong?  You think they operate in a vacuum?  

[BMD4800]

I will correct myself, thank you, I made a phone call this evening.  It is 34.5 Vogtle power plants for 50%.     And here comes the data… 

This entire premise is based off the false idea that to generate electricity 1 kWh is equal to 3412 BTU.   Which it is, mathematically.   But the actual thermal BTU from petroleum fuel (essentially heating oil) is 10,854btu/kWh.

false premise:  

https://engineering.mit.edu/engage/ask-an-engineer/what-is-the-energy-of-gasoline-compared-to-the-sa...

proof:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44436

proof 2:

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=667&t=6

The BTU of reformulated E10, what we out here are required to call “gasoline” is 111,836 BTU/gal vs 138,500 for heating oil.   (These can vary, but we’re going to assume a constant and eliminate air temp, humidity, and fuel quality as variables).  

There are 272 Million private automobiles and the average mileage traveled is 12,500 per year.   Again, we will assume this for comparison purposes.  

The average BEV car is around 0.33 kWh/mi, some are better and some are worse - same as ICE.  

Average SUV is 0.45kWh/mi.  

proof:  

https://ecocostsavings.com/electric-car-kwh-per-mile-list/

at a 50/50 SUV vs Car average, 0.39kWh is the average “economy” and our baseline for total grid demand calcs.   

12,500 miles per year at 0.33 kWh/mi = 4125 kWh per year.  4125 *10,854 btu/kWh, / 111,836 = 400 gallons of gasoline for equivalent heating BTU.  

12,500 miles / 400 gallons = 31.25 mpg.   

For the SUV = 19.9 mpg.  

where is the 2-4x efficiency?   It isn’t there.  The thermal efficiency - combustion to motive power, it isn’t there.  But, if one where to use the purely mathematical formula a kWh is equal to 3412 BTU, suddenly electrics are 3.18x more efficient.  
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44436

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=667&t=6

but wait, there’s more… 

so what, they are equivalent to a pretty decent ICE, no big, right?   A 20 gallon gasoline tank filled with our E10 donkey wiz gasoline, 20 gal * 111,836 BTU/gal = 206 kWh battery.  What?!   
35 gallon tank in the truck? 360kWh equivalent.  

This is THEIR data, not mine.  

but what about that 120 power plants?   Turns out that includes the predicted needs as coal and fuel oil plants come off-line and predicted increased grid demand from all-electric developments.  My bad.  The real number is 35.  Well, 34.5.  If 50% of the fleet, with an average mileage of 12,500 miles, is replaced with a 50/50 split of typical BEV sedans and SUVs.   

Vogtle = 1.92e^10 kWhr/yr.  

136 Million cars * 12,500 miles/year * 0.39kWh/mile = 6.63e^11 kWh.  

6.63e^11 / 1.92e^10 = 34.53 additional Vogtle nuke plants to meet the energy demand.  

Granted, 120 new plants was wrong.  
That’s cars plus grid growth and decommissioned coal and fuel oil plants.  

The data is here for all to see.  
BEVs have ZERO to do with the environment.   It is ALL about control.   Do you think there will be 35 new nuclear generating stations built to meet this demand?  And what about the REST of the grid growth?  

4-corners coal plant is decommissioned, it was roughly the same size as Vogtle.  1 plant, in rural New Mexico…

And this doesn’t even touch on resource mining.  Don’t mind the child slave labor for Cobalt, the real environmental impact of Lithium mining and processing, that’s in Africa and South America.   We need to virtue signal and protect the environment in the USA.   

The absurdity is in the premise and the data clearly points out the emperor has no clothes.   

[BMD4800]

The 25% energy use factor is also incorrect.

It takes into assumption too many variables as constants. ignores the losses associated with peak demand vs lower periods, and also completely fails to account for the energy demands outside of just plugging in the car.

[hyperv6]

Prove it. 

[BMD4800]

Ooh, struck a nerve eh?

That figure is based on 10-40 mile travel in an urban setting and it pertains to carbon emissions, not efficiency.  That is the DOE study that focused on reducing vehicle CO2 emissions, but it doesn’t account for transmission and charging losses, where BEVs lose much of their total efficiency gain.  

[BMD4800]

See above, with links.  

[TrustyRusty]

Are you enjoying your Kool-Aid?

[TrustyRusty]

You must be smoking something. Ever hear of rolling blackouts???

[hyperv6]

Yes in isolated areas mostly in LA. 

[BMD4800]

man, you really don’t know what you don’t know.   

Even replacing 25% private vehicles with BEVs is a huge undertaking from an infrastructure standpoint.  

[BMD4800]

No they don’t.  
Coal plants are coming off line, major coal plants, and are replaced with smaller producers.   
wind and solar is not reliable for baseline power.    

[dougking]

No one addresses this. one report said we add 10% to the infrastructure demand every year with just consumer electronics - the grid is ancient and in need of expansion. China, other Asian countries and Europe build coal plants but we cant even build natural gas with this current admin. Texas was an indication of how well wind and solar will work. we are loading the wagon before we have any horses to pull it and the herd has left the corral.

[janedon]

Toxic waste compared to the Toxic waste in owning & maintaining ICE cars??

[BMD4800]

Hyperv6,

I enjoy your contributions and your connections to the marketplace, but with all due respect you and the SAE are wrong here.

The SAE knows it, they are beholden to a direction being forced upon them and no single manufacturer wants the loss of ESG credit, political support, or fall under additional scrutiny due to pushback.

When you said hybrids are expensive, as they pertain specifically to Toyota, your position became clear.

Toyota hybrids, their manufacture and production, their lifecycle, and total emissions reduction over that cycle is significantly less than a BEV. To argue cost in context with a BEV is laughable. The SAE knows this too as we discussed the infrastructure costs associated with plug-in hybrids 20 years ago.
But I digress.
BEV move the pollution from one point, to another. The personal cost to upgrade a modern home for 2 vehicle charging is staggering. If a person lives in an all-electric neighborhood, their 200 amp service will be insufficient. They will need a second service, or to upgrade their service and panel for significantly more current capacity. What’s that cost? Here in the Phoenix metro (we have natural gas at our house so we aren’t 100% electric) $10,000. That’s to get everything for one BEV. Let’s say we wanted a electric truck too - $15,000. Now, for our place up north… well, that’s different. At our ranch - $50,000, easy. New transformer, lines, supply to the house, breaker panel, etc. to the house in the small mountain town - only about $7,500, we’ll just put a new panel in the garage (disconnected from house).
That doesn’t account for the additional cost of the electricity, which here is based upon not just how much you use, but when.

These are REAL costs for regular folk. Ok, not everyone bought ranches and houses when the market was low, but my point is major metro suburban, very small rural town, and rural electric with limited supply. BEV have a very specific criteria where they have a benefit. The majority of time they are at best a break even over a long ROI, or more commonly a net loss.

I know, 20-30 years out, right? We’ve been waiting for better telecom for 23 years at the ranch and in the small town. 40 years ago when the house was built, power supply was limited then too.

BEV are a limited use, limited impact, answer to an urban problem. Outside the urban areas their effectiveness drops dramatically. The urban free-charging is even losing favor. At my office, an employee asked the CEO if they could get free gas since the area manager gets free electricity for their Tesla? The company removed that charger. The optics of having free charging falls flat when the rank and file can’t afford a Tesla.

Toyoda is 100% correct and Toyota, regardless of their BEV bandwagon jumping, knows full-well that gasoline-electric hybrids is proven, scalable, long-term tech that offers more benefits than disadvantages and can be used across the globe. The contractor with the plug-in hybrid truck or service van has far more versatility than the all-electric, especially at the unpredictable job site. Plug in at home for short trips, the same net result of a BEV, but all the versatility of a ICE.

As to solid-state batteries and other nano-tech that promise to answer the question…it STILL isn’t here. In fact, we don’t have sufficient fabs to produce the existing demand for nanos, let alone being new tech online in any meaningful volume. Again, SAE had grand ideas and poor execution time tables for their industry because of their limited understanding of fabs. For the love of crumb cake, China is saber rattling around Taiwan and you (and SAE) is taking about solid state batteries? Samsung can’t absorb the demand and the new fab in Phoenix won’t be up to speed for years. Lest we forget a Taiwan has sworn they will take the Sampson option vs give China the highly specialized tech. Again, SAE has no idea what they don’t know.

Lithium recycling is energy intensive. So much so, it has a negative EROEI. It will be a mandated part of the business plan, to recover and recycle the materials, and will drive the lithium cell price higher. This is fine in a solid state world, but we aren’t to that point yet. And I’m pretty sure you haven’t considered the costs associated with producing a nanotechnology solid state battery capable of 500kWh. It is frightening.
Current copper and gold mining is stretching the limits and pushing costs significantly higher. The % recovery from Resolution Copper is a mere fraction of the rich veins from 50 years ago in the same mountain range. BEVs don’t make this better, they ADD pressure.

I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I am a deeply connected guy in a lot of these industries and see the reality vs the fluff.

1) BEVs aren’t supported from raw materials to charging infrastructure and the Trillions needed to get to viability is political suicide.

2) Current Emissions and future emissions standards are a laughable example of a dissociative mental disorder. CA and west coast pollution levels are impacted more so by wind patterns from China and wild fires, than domestic sources.

3) We have energy, we have an excellent proven, short, mid, and long term solution that will reduce energy use in the transportation sector.

Bottom line, this is an economic redistribution system and it has a target on the working class. Think this is just about cars? Think again.

[hyperv6]

The problem here is you assume automakers are doing this to save the planet. That is not the case. It is all about cost and money. 

Hybrids are subjected to the escalating cost of meeting emissions and the development cost are escalating while the cost of EV development will decrease over time. 

I do agree there are many things being done for income redistribution in attempts for more globalization. They attack our country daily and have infiltrated parts of our goverment through the progressive political folks. 

This EV thing started out like that but the automakers continue to drive cost down and see there is more in it for the economically. Also many see it as a way to reset the industry to take advantage to move their position up. This is one reason why Toyota has been against change as they had a pretty secure place but now will have to get dirty competing again. 

[BMD4800]

I fully know the automakers aren’t into saving the planet, 100%.  But, they are beholden to those who crave power.   Power that comes from control.   And control that comes vis-à-vis regulating movement, commerce, and activity.  

increasing emissions regs are an issue for everyone, but off-shoring the costs associated with supportive tech needed to make BEVs viable head to head with ICEs assumes no pass-through.  Unless a person is completely ignorant or willfully ignoring the true costs, ICEs and ICE Hybrids make fiscal sense and will for quite some time.   Of course through legislation the market will change.  

That said, why no mileage tax on electrics?    Yeah…  don’t be distracted by one hand, as the other picks your pocket.   

The automakers should lobby for sensible regulations, but are too busy begging. 

I get it, you’re in the industry, but let me tell you the reality: the majority don’t want this.   Forcing it upon people will fail miserably.   Toyota demonstrated that incremental improvements on a known and proven system net sales and confidence.    Jumping head-first in, smacking your neck, and spending years trying to walk again is the GM way.  Volt?  Marketing disaster.   Bolt?  Fires and recalls.   The Cruze diesel?  Gone. Can we work on that Cruze diesel, get it cleaner, put a hybrid system in there?   You know, like GM worked on in the 90s?   
No.  Gone.   
But, we’re making bolts lighter, and installing annoying start-stop tech, and auto braking for driving while influencing.   

This is like an engineering board meeting at Morton Thiokol - hey, did you guys know these o-rings shrink when cold?  Meh, what’s the worst they can happen?Or in some Atlanta room with high back chairs - okay everyone, say hello to “New Coke”!   

Say hello to your BEV future.  Charging takes 8-10 hours at home.  Just hire an electrician to run a 50 Amp 240 volt circuit to your garage.  2 cars?  Oh, well that’s 2 circuits.  Probably need more service.   What’s that, you live in apartment or park along the street?   Oh, maybe you should walk.  However, if you can find a level 3 charger with no waiting, only 30-45 minutes.  

Worried about battery fires?  So are we, but this is the future, and you WILL like it.   

[77GL]

Come on Hagerty, try to keep up. It was well publicized in December that Toyota finally changed course and is catching up to other manufactures and is going all out with electric.
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-toyota-to-invest-35bn-to-accelerate-its-ele....

[BMD4800]

It’s called ESG.
It is a part of the great reset.

Cheering your own dissent into subjugation.

[OHCOddball]

There will always be issues with transportation. EV's are not the end all be all. The electric grid (and generation) cannot handle 100% EV's. Long distance travel across the country by car is not easily possible with EV's even with 400 mile range. Fueling a gas car takes five minutes. EV's will take longer even with fast chargers to get a full charge and you know it won't be as cheap as they say. You would have to have millions of chargers and have them on all the streets where people shop and live. That doesn't take into account the dirty secret of where the lithium comes from to make the batteries, recycling issues and loss of book value when the battery dies and you haven't even come close to paying the car loan off. There is room for many different modes. We as a country just need to get out of the mindset that we can do whatever we went whenever we want all the time. People used to live close to where they worked and shopping was close by too. You didn't need a car in the neighborhood I grew up in. Small stores were close and the bus line was at the corner if you needed to go somewhere else in town. Where I live now is five miles from anything. Closest bus stop is 3/4 mile away and taking the bus wastes and hour for the trip that takes 15 minutes by car. Also no good places to walk or ride bikes. Everything needs to change.

[OldFordMan]

Yeah, EV's won't be the end-all to climate change mandates. When the world is forced to go all bev, the politicians making the laws and the Hollywood wannabe stars are jetting all around what is going to fuel their planes?

[hyperv6]

Ford here is the present deal. It has gone far beyond the save the planet crap. MFGs fought this until they finally found that in the next 20 years they could attain the range and cost people require and even lower charge times. 

2015 KpH was around $1500 if I recall and today it is now below $100. It is expected to be $36 by 2030. So the cost will end up dropping. This is all the while development cost of ICW has rose at a record rate and is only getting more expensive. 

Automakers expect to retain cost and still increase income with EV models. Once the main development cost are made back they will be much cheaper to build and develop. 

Also automakers are wanting to be tech companies not old time MFGs. The stock prices today are showing what it does. GM is at record highs and Ford with their EV news have finally climbed over $10 for the first time in a long time. 

We all need to learn what and why things are going on because there is a lot of info on the web that is wrong. Lies become truths. 

While not everything is perfect yet it is far from the end of the world as some see it. Yes it is change and change is not always easy for everyone. 

In my case I work in the racing industry and I am watching many of my companies I work with scramble to find their place in the future. I watch with interest to what this will do to my work. 

I also warn that we all should really be more focused on the preservation of vintage cars and and the products like proper fuel to enjoy them. There is still great risk bureaucrats could restrict our fuel or pass laws for us to drive our cars. Already in England they are trying to pass a law any modified car can not be driven on the street. They claim it for safety but the truth is they already get yearly inspections at MOT and there is no worry for safety. 

I pray companies band together like Hagerty and others to fight for our rights to enjoy our cars and preserve them for the future. It is one thing to go EV but another to take away perfectly restored historic vehicles.