Classic trucks are booming. I see them around town far more frequently than classic cars or even modern classics.
From stock to modified, that market has gone straight up.
I believe there is an elegant simplicity to them that attracts folks away from modern trucks. With a classic truck, the shapes and aerodynamics were such you could drive with the windows down. Add in the minimal towing and hauling requirements of most folks, why not? I know a couple guys who have 67-72 GM and Ford trucks. Cheaper classic insurance, their entry price was before the boom, and the “truck” aspect was an easier sell to the wife than say a Camaro, or 911, etc.
My neighbor is working on a '67 C10. Rust free farm truck from Wyoming and not a straight panel or piece of trim on it. It had a knock in the 292. When I stopped by a couple months ago he said he had the knock figured out and was fixing it. I asked if he needed help getting the engine out, he said he already had it out and fixed. Then he opened the barn door. In the 292's place was a 540 with a 6 speed. That'll do it!
You definitely can't beat investing in a 1967-72 Chevy truck. I bought my '72 C20 in 1984 when it was just a used truck. We did a cab on restoration in 1988, followed by mechanical upgrades (400 SBC, 3.73 gears.700R4 auto) in years following. It still shows well, tows well, and drives well.
The appeal of a #1 car is different when it's a car like the 1974 - 1989 911 compared to some rare exotic or obscure classic. It's a car to DRIVE and it's hard to keep away from driving it for long. I can't last more than two weeks. A #3 or even a #4 car in great mechanical shape is a joy that you can go on a short road trip with, drive to the gym or grocery, commute to work if you have to, and park in a parking lot. Not only that, but every dollar you put into getting it into better shape towards a #3 or even #2 condition is a worthwhile investment you would get back if you foolishly sell it.
With a #1 911 what are you going to do with it? You'll barely ever drive it and you can't park it anywhere and about the only place you'll drive to is onto a trailer to some car show and then back into your display area. Whoopdee do.
This article is depressing from a buyer's perspective but I guess any sellers reading this would be pleased. Gentrification is generally regarded as unpopular when applied to a real estate or urban planning mindset. If this is the car equivalent of gentrification it will certainly leave a lot of truly enthusiastic new drivers in the cold. I have seen values growing on everything around me lately (inflation? price gouging? over-valuation?) and my wages have remained effectively flat.
I can't speak for anyone except myself but from my perspective this is unsustainable. Everyone seems to expect that every investment or purchase made will garner some form of return. How long this will remain the case is open to speculation but I don't see how this can continue (How long will the Fed suppress interest rates? How high will inflation go? How big will the real estate and stock bubble get before it pops? How far can you stretch a rubber band before it breaks and smacks your finger?).
As an owner of two classic cars that probably fall neatly into the bottom of your #4 valuation, I hope that they don't appreciate anymore. I like to drive them and work on them and could not care less if they appreciate. I understand that there are many sides to classic car ownership but every day that these older cars appreciate the smaller the pool gets for potential customers. Eventually there will be "collections" owned by a select few and never seen again because everything is unaffordable.