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Hagerty
Hagerty Employee

Parted Out? The future of car components in an EV world | Hagerty Media

This is the latest in a series of Hagerty Insider articles on the future of classic cars in an electrified world. Catch up with an examination of the impact of internal-combustion engine bans in Europe or an exploration of what regulations might come into effect in the United States.
https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/hagerty-insider/future-car-components-ev/
127 REPLIES 127
relton
Detailer

Jack Baruth's Avoidable Contact column a while back laid out very succinctly why much of the optimism about electric cars is misplaced. In other words, electric cars have been 5 years away for the last 50 years.

If GM is serious about ending gasoline engine development, it might be time to short their stock. I could put the profits towards a new 12 cylinder Bentley.
PRScott
Detailer

Electric is here now. I have solar on the barn roof, a plug in hybrid in the garage, a diesel benz I drive every day and an Austin Healey I drive on nice days. The hybrid will be replaced by a straight electric eventually and probably the benz as well if I live long enough to wear it out. I won't worry about spares for the Healey because where there is a demand there will always be a supplier ready to fill it.
spark123
Detailer

And how many days does it take to charge your EV from your solar panels??
You do realize it takes on the average 6 years to recoup the the electricity it took to make the solar panels? That is over 1/4 the lifespan of the panels.
This whole Electrification is a massive money grab!
Air_and_Water
Advanced Driver

You don't "recharge from your solar panels". You feed the grid during the day when demand is highest (and electricity is most expensive on tiered systems) and charge your car at night when electricity is cheapest and at lowest demand. Electric cars can at least somewhat be charged by electricity you generate, but you can't make any gas. They're also dirt cheap to run in comparison to a gasser. I spend $150-$200 per month on gas and if my car were electric it'd be about $30. Before you say "road trip" my car is the family commuter and I don't use it for that anyway. Sure, road trips are a problem right now, but that's being solved faster than they're being bought. The same was true 120 years ago with horses compared to gasoline availability, but look how quickly it changed. Today is little different.
TonyT
Instructor

And back in the days of the horse as primary transportation, how long did one have to wait while the animal ate and rested? No top, no cupholder (except your hand) no infotainment. Comparing an ICE-powered vehicle to the old days ignores the right-now reality of long distance EV travel. And the ecological impact that will occur to expand and improve the electrical infrastructure will never be amortized. Your statement "you can't make gas" is true, but using a geological liquid that is replenished by the earth as opposed to trying to create electricity consistently and reliably is currently a better option. I am of the opinion that the ultimate answer is a gas-electric hybrid, which seems to offer the best of both worlds. Think railroad locomotive, which has proven to be the most cost-efficient means of moving people and freight.
lockitt
Pit Crew

The trouble with a horse is that it still eats hay when it is in the barn and not being ridden. This blows out your hay per mile ratio. It only carries a maximum of two passengers when it is working.
Have I mentioned the smell from the horse's exhaust especially when it is wet and farting?
They just go to the bathroom whenever and wherever they like.
If we were meant to ride horses then we would not have been given the internal combustion engine.
My biggest concern with horses is that the driver has a brain, and the horse has a brain but, there is no connection between the two brains leading to a situation when the horse goes in one direction and the rider/driver goes in a totally different direction sometimes leading to the rider/driver landing in the previously mentioned exhaust products of said horse.
64jeepsrt
Intermediate Driver

Lets see how an ICE or EV can fertilize the land like a horse does and if you could capture the exhaust of a horse you could power that ICE and a generator to charge the EV... LOL
dtniners
Pit Crew

EXACTLY!!!!
OldCarMan
Instructor

EVs suck, sorry!
DavidHolzman
Detailer

I'm with you on most of what you say, but for me at least, road trips via electrics won't be possible until fast recharging stations are common in the boonies as well as on the interstates.
spark123
Detailer

So you are charging your EV using fossil fuel!

A good part of the expense of gas is the tax you pay that is not yet implemented on EVs.

 

Let's do a fair comparison of efficiency not this virtual MPG B.S.

 

We will compare a Tesla model 3 to a Honda Civic GX which is a CNG vehicle.   This way we are comparing apples to apples.

 

A Tesla model 3 gets about 263 miles on a full charge it takes 50 KwH to charge fully.  1 KwH takes about 1000 cubic feet of natural gas to generate.  To go 263 miles it takes 50000 cubic feet of NG which equates to 190 cubic feet of NG to go one mile!

 

Let's compare the Honda.  One tank of the Honda has a range of roughly 250 miles.  The tank size is 7.5 gallons of CNG.  One gallon of CNG is 126.67 cubic feet of NG.  That gives  you 950 Cubic feet of NG per tank full.  This comes up to 3.8 Cubic feet of NG per mile.

 

This makes the Honda 50 times more fuel efficient than the Tesla.

 

This does not account for power losses in the grid delivering the electricity to your house to charge the Tesla.

 

I know you are going to say, "I will only use green energy".  

There is no such animal.   I used to work in a factory that made solar panels.  They are by no stretch of the imagination green.  First it takes a solar panel approximately 6 years to create the electricity it took to manufacture it.   Don't even get me started on all of the highly toxic chemicals and gasses that go in to them.  Then when they are used up they end up in a landfill causing more pollution.

 

If you believe that EVs are environmentally friendly and want to drive one. Have at it.  I just don't want to have to subsidize them. Which includes EVs paying their share of taxes that are imposed on ICE vehicles.

race15
New Driver

If you’re using 1-Mcf of NG to generate 1-kWh of electricity – I have a gas well you can invest in!

Natural gas (NG) production is typically measured in thousands of cubic feet (Mcf) in order to define the necessary production and transport equipment (production tubing, wellhead, pipeline, etc.). Natural gas is sold in increments of millions of BTUs (MMBtu) reflecting the quality of the gas and its efficiency as a fuel. For general conversation the two are considered synonymous, i.e. 1-Mcf = 1-MMBtu.

The yield will vary slightly depending on the quality of the NG, but on average it will take 7.43 c.f. of NG to produce one kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity (about 0.135 kWh per cubic foot). So, the Tesla Model 3 will only take around 372 c.f. of NG for a full 50 kWh charge, or 1.42 c.f. per mile – 63% less than that of the Honda. (I didn’t check your Honda conversions or calculations.)
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=667&t=8
BMD4800
Technician

Solar efficiency is pretty low relative to the cost. The ROI is long and the efficiency decline over time is not friendly as well. The solar route is a plausible addition to the entire energy structure, but it far from the singular solution. It is far better suited to low demand steady state than stepped-up high V charging or other heavy loads.
GRP_Photo
Instructor

Not any more.
DavidHolzman
Detailer

Solar and wind efficiency has skyrocketed in the last few years.
BMD4800
Technician

Skyrocketed…7% to 21%?   

TimK
Detailer

Wait until the solar panels degrade enough to be useless and they will. Then, like the blades on all those windmills, the solar panels cannot be recycled so will just add more debris to the landfills. And what kind of batteries do you use to store the electricity generated? How long do they last and what does it cost to replace them?
Bokeoyaji
Intermediate Driver

You're not wrong, but I think the issue really is about the long-term future. It doesn't matter how long it takes, or how much something costs. It's about the eventual depletion of crude oil. It may not happen in our lifetime, but it is inevitable. By then, there may be another alternative, or current alternatives will be improved. Regardless, it's going to happen, whether you like it or not.
OldCarMan
Instructor

hydrogen ICE or EVs is a better solution.
Oldroad1
Instructor

Got news for you. There are Crude reserves in this country alone that are good for several thousand years. That is why this climate hoax is so insanely idiotic. These reserves have been untapped for centuries and they've been a producer of carbon and other gasses centuries more. Energy independence is homeland longevity. Throw away fossil fuels and throw away your country. China will be happy to take it from you.
spark123
Detailer

True, but batteries, solar cells and windmills are not the answer!  Eventually something will come around that is actually feasible.

mhealy1
Detailer

Electric is not here. Most of us do not have solar panels, we don’t have barns, and we don’t have the luxury of owning several vehicles, each tailored to a specific task. Most of us are not even as lucky as me, with a a rented, unpowered storage space for my toy and a vast asphalt wasteland for parking our two daily drivers. Electricity in the parking lot? I’m lucky when it snows that it’s plowed in time to leave for work. Will the landlord install power in the parking lot? Maybe, but if it’s on the same timeline as replacing the dead bulb in the hallway I’m in trouble.
Electric is coming, yes, but it’s not here, at least not for the majority of us.
hyperv6
Engineer

You might note that Bentley is dropping the W12 so you can’t buy one snd they are moving to all electric like most of the rest of the industry.

Jack tends to only see Jack view but not what really is going on.

I was guilty of the same thing till I started to see what was going on in development in my industry. This told me this was no longer a false start and with the billions invested there is no real going back.

I am not an EV guy but I really understand we’re this is going and we will see a major historic change over the next 20 years.

There are still some things to discover snd solve but they will be. How we deal and approach vehicle will change much. We have seen how electronics have transformed our lives in many ways the automobile is just one more area.

 

Just like now. I sit with a OLED TV only a fraction of an inch thick floating on a lowered mount in front of my fire place with an advanced sound system attached. The picture is delivered by satellite and they are now charging me to watch what was once free. That while  I type this on a touch sensitive screen on my I pad over a global web that can reach even a space station.


All of this is electronics grown from roots in the Apollo program in less than 50 years. The development has accelerated tech more as time goes by. 

I see just some of what they are working on now and nothing can be discounted anymore. The profits from these electronics are great and more will be mining the electronic gold that has been discovered. 

audiobycarmine
Instructor

While I do believe that electric cars are here to stay, and will become more and more the norm; the problem of grid/infrastructure is ALREADY burdened beyond capacity.

Until this is solved, then getting your EV charged might be a real issue.
What about those of us who are apartment-dwellers, and who aren't able to "plug in at home"?

It may be wise to start investing in those companies who are trying to solve the power-delivery quandary.
GRP_Photo
Instructor

Absolutely. The electrical grid we have was created by the Federal Government, and the new one will be too.
Oldroad1
Instructor

Ya sure trust the government for your new wind and solar grid. California already has that grid and guess what? It is now the rolling black out state. Good luck with that!
audiobycarmine
Instructor

In most of the USA, local, State & Federal governments only REGULATE power companies, and admitedly poorly at that. The companies themselves are largely PRIVATE, (I’d guess that you’re a free-trade capitalist, right?)

 

If EV’s are going to be more and more common, like heatwaves and destructive storms & tornados are; then the power companies NEED to expand and strengthen the grids. Even Texas learned that recently.

 

BTW — You say “These reserves have been untapped for centuries and they've been a producer of carbon and other gasses centuries more.” How does untapped crude oil produce carbon & gasses?

Did you know that oil comes from prehistoric decayed plant matter, whose stored energy came from the Sun?


All of our foods get their caloric energy from the Sun, directly or indirectly. Guess what… YOU’RE solar-powered.

spark123
Detailer

You forgot fire starter!

SilentBoy741
Advanced Driver

[Looking up from my Fusick catalog]
Hm? What? Did you say something?
uweschmidt
Advanced Driver

I wouldn,trade a free 1000 hp electric Car fofr the sound of my Split Exhaust 1948 dodge 6 or the Sweet Humm of my 1963 Alfa Romeo
Air_and_Water
Advanced Driver

Do you drive those on the slog back-and-forth to work in rush hour traffic? That's where electric cars excel.
uweschmidt
Advanced Driver

in a modern world mass transport will take care of back and forth to work or at lest it should thats how gridlock and frustration should be solved
avideo
Intermediate Driver

In the Phoenix area the major users of mass transit are students, bums, the homeless and the few that can't afford a car.
TonyT
Instructor

What about the millions of global citizens that don't reside in an urban environment? Are they to be relocated so that "mass transport" can be of use to them?
uweschmidt
Advanced Driver

At the rate the world population is doubling every few years and there is a steady stream of people from the country to the citys ( just look whats happening in Kansas) Gridlock every where will take care of our hopes and dreams ( its pretty common now in heavy populated Areas) Believe it or not I do not dislike electric Cars ) but I dont relish to walk with a Tesla Battery under my arm to a charging Station after running out of Juice in a gridlock situation good Point though Tony
Oldroad1
Instructor

You ever try mass trans? I have. I was either waiting for the bus or on the bus, never got there. Certainly, if time is an issue, you'll never make it.
64jeepsrt
Intermediate Driver

Just make sure you make a recording of the sound of your split exhaust 48 Dodge and the sweet Humm of your 63 Alfa... you'll need them so you can play them on the sound system of your future EV...
OldFordMan
Detailer

Just think about Cuba since the 50's. They couldn't get new gas burners. So what did they do? They got creative and founded back-street parts and services associations. If the New Car parts and pieces supplier are smart they will form off-shoot companies to keep the stuff coming. On top of the already available retro-part suppliers that are out there.
I am already planning my own oil refinery (bootleg) for making gas and diesel hidden away in the dense mountains like my ancestors did when they made Moonshine!
BMD4800
Technician

Don’t worry, there will be a gasoline and diesel fuel available for a very long time.
It is a by product of refining. The cost of gasoline may go up, but compare and contrast to a cup of coffee.
I’ll spend $8-10 a gallon on race gas, who cares? Good fuel, stores well, much better than the pump trash. I don’t commute with it everyday, so meh. $0.5-.75/ mile? Meh. I’ll pay $100 for a weekend drive.
Rick2
Advanced Driver

I have owed a lot of old cars, some classics and some junk when I was poor. For the last 25 years I have been able to keep a nice toy car around just for fun. And electrics are interesting especially for the not used much scenario for toys. But until there are solar collectors on my roof I will stick to gas.
hyperv6
Engineer

Look this is the real deal here. EV products are coming. ICE will be phased out but this transition will take over 30 years.

Even then we should still have gas available for our hobby cars. We replaced the horse for work but we still keep them for pleasure.

I work in the racing and parts industry. The EV cars are coming and they will not languish on lots as the prices come down they will be cheaper than most ICE models with rapid battery price declines.

These automakers have all found their way forward to be electric as it is a path to build vehicles cheaper and make them more profitable vs the continuation of highly regulated internal combustion vehicles.

Grids will be improved, ranges are there now snd charging times will drop.

It is time for many on the web to come to grips this is no longer a political or tree hugging issue. This is now an automotive company economic issue.

We have seen companies close and merge under the strain of development of clean IC engines. While we see companies like Apple thrive with electronics.

From where I work I see this deal a step or two ahead of where most web readers are looking. The pace of EV development is really getting fast and you will see things in 5 years you never imagined could be. Once this development is completed the products will continue to decline in cost much like Cel, Phones and big screen TV. Yes the latest tech will cost more but it will decline as more new comes along.

The parts companies are already working to to EV market or to leverage their companies in new directions. The NHRA is working on a class for EV products. The new NASCAR car is going to be hybrid able and electric when needed.

To qualify I have gas in my veins but with what I have seen I understand this is going to happen with me or with out me. If I am to compete in business in the future the sooner I learn to adapt the better.

My real concern is for the car hobby. We must guard against things happening like poorer gas like the UK where they are adding another 10% ethanol to their fuel. Or taxes that would make it difficult yo own a older car. They will not take your car outright but they could make it difficult to own. Anyone try to buy 9mm shells lately?

So at this point be warned after some false starts the EV is now here and will continue to grow in numbers at a much faster rate. Many of the claimed issues have been over come or were just false to start with.

I will keep my gas hobby cars but at some point I will have to transition over to EV for daily beaters.

We are going to see more change in 30 years than we have seen in 130 years. This real, it is happening and it is not going to stop. Pay attention and read much then fight for our hobby as it is not too late to save it yet. .
imavettin
Pit Crew

ummm in which universe will batteries be cheaper than ice cars?
you make a statement about apple and its electronics...... how much was an I phone 10 years ago?....how much is an i phone today?....exactly.

Electronics will never get cheaper.
in 1970 electronics were built by union labor (Philco...remember them? Edison Electric, IBM ...still kicking? etc.) now electronics are cheaper because they are made with slave labor, they cannot get cheaper again, how could that happen? world labor rates are rising, regulated rare earth heavy metals, suddenly become free? wars will be fought over countries like Georgia for their magnesium. China is buying every rare mineral it can.

People will come to the realization that a Texas power outage, means you are stranded for a month, or worse yet... a hurricane mid night evacuation means sudden population control, cause the battery isn't charged, and we cannot stall that hurricane for 8 hours to get a full 80% charge....hurricanes just don't seem to listen. countless other catastrophes, will show the battery charger nonsense.

I'm not against electric cars, in theory, they can be very cool, with instantaneous torque. I just wont bet my survival on one. they offer no logical sense to the consumer, however, Batteries are necessary for the next gen. self driving car that you cannot own.
BMD4800
Technician

I work in a subset industry, but have contacts deep in the supplier and engineering groups.

Let me be painfully blunt:
Pure EVs are halo cars for status and political mileage.

Hybrids are far and beyond the future and the auto makers know it.

Pure EVs will come, will arrive, but their subsidy can only last so long and their true deep board room projected sales are low. Hybrids, on the other hand, benefit from a well sorted engineering basis, well established infrastructure and offer a seem less transition to full EV … over time.

Oh I know, range, and charging, and all these are improving. Not fast enough and the lithium as a material has significant problems.

Once the battery tech is solved the next hurdle is power generation and the grid itself. This will be at least a 2 generation task to get 75% of the country to support widespread full EV.

But we like big promises, grand ideas, and hate the truth of STEM and Physics.

LG has made significant advances in multi-step transmissions and electric motors, they are closing the electric motor efficiency gap. But we still have a battery issue. And it’s a big one.

Let me just end this comment with a couple facts to consider:

1) EVs pay no fuel taxes
2) EVs are getting substantial subsidies.
3) Employers that once adopted EV chargers are slowly turning away as employees charge their EV, not just top-off, every day at work vs home.
4) more Tesla owners trade their Tesla in for a ICE or Hybrid than buy another.

Does it mean EVs aren’t coming? No, quite the contrary. But their full-scale impact is at least 40-50 years out. Until then, they will continue their low % sales and gradually get to 10% of the market, within 15 years is the prediction. 50% in 30 years. Remember, 50% is the fleet is 12 years old or older.

Conversely, 50% of the light fleet could be PHEV in under 15 years.
hyperv6
Engineer

Sorry from where I sit I see most of this unfounded. Hybrids will be faced with continued increased cost and regulations. Even Off Cycle EPA credits will be limited. 

Much of the cost of an EV is in the Battery. These cost will decrease as they are down from $1100 kWh to just over $100 kWh and by 2025 is to be at $38 kWh with the present tech not discounting more break throughs. 

The transfer to EV is going to be much like horse to IC. It was not over night nor always cheap. Then the model T happened and then America was driving not riding. 

1. taxes are pending with license. This may be coming as car even efficient on gas are paying less gas tax. 

2. As prices drop no need for the government money. 

3. Employers should not be charging cars. Do it at home. 

4. With  the Tesla issues I have seen I would not buy one in the first place. They are no where as high quality or sorted as their followers want you to believe. 

5. They made a big deal out of 1 of 5 go back to ICE. That means 4 of 5 remain. I find this number better than it should be based on the cars now available. When better cars arrive this will remain or improve. 

EV cars will be cheaper to build, they will take smaller plants with less staffs. They will contain less parts and not face major EPA testing and CARB cost. This will decrease their cost to make them competitive with ICE Hybrids that still face major EPA testing and regulations. 

Yes some EV models will employ transmissions. This will permit the, to increase range and performance. It also will let them use smaller cheaper batteries to lower cost and not hurt performance. 

Yes there is much to work out but look back 30 years and see how far we have already come. 

It is what it is. This is coming and there are many variables. But this is coming. 

What  puzzles me is will people treat EV cars as they age like an old cell phone? Will they show no interest in used old tech and only want the new cars? This could be critical. 

As for trashed cars the metals used in the batteries and car will make salvage a big industry. Many are already gearing up. 

 

hyperv6
Engineer

Look the first home computers were $10k plus today for $800 you have a phone a million plus times capable that can do so many things than just a call in your pockets. That is in just 30 years. 

the first large plasma screens in NYC in 1999 were $8,000 when they appeared. They were a whopping 48”. Today you can get led Tabs for well under $1000 up to 70” plus in size. 

My Lap top here has 1 TB for $2000 with the added Apple premium price. Not that long ago $4000 would get you a 16 gig. 

Many electronics go down in price as they go. Others add or expand ability and content for the same price and still make billions doing so. 

You may have paid $1200 for your flip phone in your pocket but you can go to Apple buy a 11 phone for $600. with 128 gig. 

I am not a big EV fan to me they are appliances. But I do know my survival moving forward work wise and transportation wise will require me to be accepting. 

You can come up with many hood reasons and or excuses but it is not going to change a thing. You lose electric in a hurricane you are not getting the fuel out of the ground anyways. 

BMD4800
Technician

So, you’re saying that EVs will overtake Hybrids without heavy incentives?  


Based on?  Their performance, reliability, recharge time, weight, safety? 

The only way that is possible is through heavy taxation upon gasoline and diesel fuels, combined with a major boost in power generation in a very short period of time.   It simply isn’t going to roll out that way.   If we had enough power there wouldn’t be threats of grid shut downs on very hot or very cold days.   

Even with a new power plant every month, it would take over a decade to replace gasoline for the primary mover of motor vehicles.    

Hybrids are the majority share for the next 40 years.  They will have plug in capability and all-electric modes for zero emissions zones.   Oh, that’s here now, in a variety of vehicles.   

Hybrids make sense.  EVs only in a very specific subset and controlled situations.   

Tony
Pit Crew

You think grids will be improved? California has had rolling blackouts for only 19 years. What year do you think the grids will fixed ? Never, . . .
hyperv6
Engineer

Electric cars or not California may be at risk for trouble no matter what. 

Most other areas are already ok or will have updates by the time it is needed.

 

As for California they finally have accepted the fact they will need Natural Gas moving forward as wind and sun are not going to cut it. 

I expect the Fed will have to step in and fix Cali once it becomes critical even with no EV.

 

Or they get hit with the next big one and the Fed has to fix it anyways. 

Tony
Pit Crew

Fix California ? Have you been to LA or San Francisco lately ? They are using the sidewalks instead of bathrooms. As I said, 19 years of rolling black outs, and counting. As long as the current residents keep on doing what they do, nothing will change. What has the Fed ever fixed ? Scariest words ever heard "I'm here from the Government to fix it."