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Hagerty
Hagerty Employee

Avoidable Contact #93: What if you held a mandatory EV party and nobody came? | Hagerty Media

Start with this: Moore's Law was never a law. It wasn't even a theory. Didn't even make it to hypothesis grade. This is what it was: bunk. If you've never heard of Moore's Law, no worries. We'll get back to it in a moment.
https://www.hagerty.com/media/opinion/avoidable-contact/avoidable-contact-93-what-if-you-held-a-mand...
179 REPLIES 179
MaverickNutron
Intermediate Driver

Yep..."GRENADE!!!"
(and I envision JB grinning from ear to ear as he calmly pulled the pin and rolled it into the {chat}room...)
ecostello
New Driver

I just don't see how EVs will work in the rural parts of the US. Drive 20 miles to charge your EV? I can see EVs maybe working for major urban areas, but that's it. And in the population dense areas, is there going to be a charing station in front of each house/apartment? Is everyone ready to have their street torn up for the electrics? We can barely fix potholes where I live.
Jack_Hagerty
Moderator

You're asking the right question, but with the wrong emphasis... I suspect The Powers That Be view the lack of EV rural compatibility as a hammer with which to drive people out of their paid-off rural homes into city apartments.
MaverickNutron
Intermediate Driver

"Soylent Green is PEOPLE!!!"
Spuds
Advanced Driver

BINGO Jack.This is just another social program by whackadoodles.Agenda 21 and Agenda 30.
Rider79
Instructor

If true, those Powers must really be hating that many formerly happy city-dwellers are suddenly looking to move to suburban, or even rural, areas, in the wake of the pandemic. This same pandemic has made public transit very problematic, with many folks who have their own cars taking again to driving. Will the vaccine, and eventual taming of the coronavirus, end these changes and problems? Or, will they prove to be a sustainable trend? We don't yet know.
BMD4800
Instructor

Bingo.

You don’t need to live out there. Scary things are out there like animals and chores to be done. The water isn’t treated with chemicals, people drink it right out of a well!
There is no HOA to tell folks when to cut their grass, paint their house, or bring in the trash cans.

It’s chaos. Don’t live outside of cities. My gosh, at night, if you forget to close your windows, there is this horrible cacophony of noise from unknown multitudes of likely carnivorous insects plotting your certain death!

And worst of all, someone might do you a favor, to be nice, and then what?!
ModelT
Advanced Driver

And that's why we hated getting old and having to leave the boonies of Florida. Yet Illinois, low taxes, great honest politicians, and......... oops, I just woke up!
knucklebusted
Intermediate Driver

Rush's Red Barchetta is going become a prophetic warning tale.

I'm so tired of all of our tax money being used to pick winners and losers without any input from me.

Battery-powered cars are going to be the laserdisc of the automobile world. They are inefficient and terrible at conversion of power to distance. H2 fuel cells are the future. You can fill up nearly as quick as gasoline and the range for capacity is better than gasoline.
MaverickNutron
Intermediate Driver

Agreed, I hope to be that "White haired uncle..."
spark123
Detailer

We're all going EV no matter what the impact on the environment is!!

What happens to all those EV vehicles much of which cant be recycled, so it gets buried in a land fill?

What about all the energy wasted by burning fuel to create steam to spin a generator to produce power that gets transmitted via a weak power grid to your charging station, stepping the voltage down so to produce a voltage that the charger can accept, converting the AC power supplying the charger to DC power that the batteries require, taking that electricity and converting it to chemical energy, then taking that chemical energy and modulating it to be able to control speed. Then taking the modulated electricity and converting it to rotational energy, then taking the rotational energy and mechanically coupling it to the road to propel you down the road.
Ya, that's real efficient!
OldCarMan
Instructor

Do a search for windmill blades. Can't be recycled, last 25 years, and get buried in landfills...
BMD4800
Instructor

Can’t we burn them?

The irony would be delicious.
knucklebusted
Intermediate Driver

That's what I've argued for years. Batteries are convenient for small things that are efficient and the losses are marginally valuable. With something as big and power hungry as a car, you have a lot of conversion losses that really eat up your efficiency. My money is on Hydrogen Fuel Cells, lower conversion costs and greater range than gas in a smaller package.

spoom
Technician

True, but there were a lot of problems with the original 40000 volt electric shavers😀

OldRoad
Instructor

No worries, Mars is the answer for all of our EV waste problems. I can't think of a better reason for making billion + dollar trips to a worthless dead planet than to make it an EV waist dump at the same time.
turquoisetom
Pit Crew

Let alone how the infrastructure cannot support it. How many people will be sitting in there houses freezing because the grid went down in the evening while every one is charging their car. The whole premise comes from the stupidity of the global warming scare. Now several scientists are predicting global cooling coming soon. I'm sure then they will blame that on gas powered cars, also.
Mope
Pit Crew

Global cooling? Haven’t heard that in a while. As a child in the 70’s the “ecology” groups told us we would soon be in the next ice age. Am I the only one who remembers that rhetoric? Mt. St. Helen spewed more noxious gas into the atmosphere than all ICEs in the last 50 years. Liberals need to regulate volcanoes! The reality is we could use both EV and ICE. Ev for short daily trips and ICE to tear up the power cords laying across the roads
spoom
Technician

Why doesn't California outlaw wildfires?

spark123
Detailer

Texas is living that bad dream as we speak!!
CFH
Pit Crew

Thank you for another thought provoking article. One factor that may affect this discussion is that the future consumers of these electric vehicles of 2035 are currently being educated about the existential threat of internal combustion engines (or any combustion at all,for that matter) and will gladly make the sacrifice to save the planet. I rest easy in the knowledge that Scientists are working on the problem of supplying the electricity for all of those vehicles even as I write this.
OldCarMan
Instructor

Just think how well the 1970 Save the Earth brainwashing has worked. The EV revolution run by control freaks, is just the next step in global control of the population.
Be patient, they are chipping away at every freedom, all for a "good" cause!
spoom
Technician

And I wept for the future of the country as I read it.

spark123
Detailer

To create a new way to effect the environment negatively. Energy can not be created. It is released. The only green transportation is walking and biking, and even that is not green because you exhale CO2 and emit methane!
elldorado2000
Intermediate Driver

One of the most common sense, rational articles about electric cars that I have read. It's not about the car or the electric motors, it's about the battery. It's just not there. No car manufacturer is ever going to sell a majority of their cars that takes an hour at a supercharger to fully charge.
My area was hit by a tornado last summer. I was without power for a week. If that happens 15 years in the future and I have an electric car, I am hoofing it. How many cities get hit by tornado's every year, or hurricanes, or brown outs? Didn't portions of California have a week without power because it was too hot?
Not to say there isn't a market for electric vehicles. Mail trucks for instance. Minimal area, sit's over night, not crucial for travel. Small second vehicle for kicking around town, but that expense of a dying battery still makes it a bitter pill to swallow.
Spuds
Advanced Driver

Actually Ell they cut the power for winds.As the grid is so poor that the wires get slapped together and spark.So yeah,this grid is going to power cars too? No it wont.They know it and love it,gotta use those useful idiot Greta's to take complete control over our lives,and freedoms.This has nothing to do with the environment for these globalist world citizens in control,its all about making US serfs.
spoom
Technician

People ignore the upside of these thousands of wind turbines, look how the price of canned bald eagle has gone down.

bblhed
Advanced Driver

You ended with Ford but I will start there, we have starter motors in out cars because Henry's wife wanted to drive Edison's car because she didn't have to hand crank it. that is progress by necessity. You are also forgetting that the requirement is Zero Emissions, not must run on batteries. What happens if a company like Exxon Mobil starts working on recycling pollution into fuel? That fuel by definition is Zero Emissions because it will, in theory, be turned back into fuel. In that scenario even a 500 cubic inch Cadillac from the 50's would be Zero Emissions. You have also forgotten that if it is more expensive or takes longer to do it the old way people will convert to the new way. While the future might not be EV, synthetic fuel, or Diesel I would be willing to bet it probably won't be gasoline either. Nothing is as dependable as change.
BMD4800
Instructor

As long as we are refining oil, there will be diesel and gasoline derivatives. Just how it works. We can massage the outcomes some, but the costs to eliminate them chemically will be enormous.

Not to be a jerk, 500 cube caddies were a late 60s/70s thing. Much of the maligned poor efficiency of the 60s is muscle car specific and not placed on the 70s where it belongs. Before downsizing models, big malaise beasts with low compression lean burn engines were choked by a inefficient flowing catalyst. Swap out the pellet bed cat for a modern cat, recurve the distributor, jet the Quadrajet properly and replace the 2.41s with 3.08s made the smog-era 400 Poncho an enjoyable car and still remarkably clean. 11 mpg the way the general made her, 14 mpg in town still with a single pipe, 18 on the highway. That’s not bad for a 4,500 lbs brick. If those old farts would have let me put on some duals with 2 cats, I bet I could have got close to 20 mpg at 70mph.
bblhed
Advanced Driver

I used the 500 CI caddy from the 50's example as a polluting car example. 

 

Your use of the word "derivatives" proves my point, we already use Biodiesel and Gas-a-haul in our cars, E-85 is pretty close to Zero Emissions already as it is pollution captured from the air by a plant that turned pollution into fruit or grain that was then distilled into fuel. Zero Emissions is not a pipe dream, we are most of the way there if people bothered to actually look.

spoom
Technician

E85 and zero emissions aren't even third cousins.

spark123
Detailer

Zero emissions does not exist nor will it ever unless the laws of physics change.
TA76
Intermediate Driver

Slap a 4 speed or 5 speed overdrive automatic transmission in that firebird or GTO watch the mileage jump to 20+.
ModelT
Advanced Driver

My '55 Chevy wagon with a peppy 305 and 4-barrel hooked to a 2004R gets 20+ on average everyday driving.
MajorTomB
Intermediate Driver

Jack, as an actual electrical engineer, I have been singing this song to friends for over a decade now. The general reaction by the usual suspects is that I am a Luddite and need to follow the "SCIENCE!" I explain to them that I do follow the science, and that I actually understand the math, and some of the chemistry. I think it is tremendous that we can buy an electric vehicle that does have a range close to a full tank of gas. Unfortunately, the problems start when it is time to refill that tank, and that is the point most people do not understand. I loved the Op-Ed, and I plan to share it heavily.
Tinkerah
Technician

Jack your points would be taken easier if you could keep your bitterness in check. I love my shaking, inefficient, rumbling, living breathing V8's as deeply as anyone can but EV tech is proving itself every day. No new ICE cars after 2035? Damn, I can't afford anything available NOW that interests me. I can't make my own gasoline but I CAN make my own electricity. As long as someone will sell me gas to run my old iron for the foreseeable future, I'm OK with that. BTW: there is no actual liquid in LiPo batteries and while they can spontaneously ignite if damaged, we're all perfectly comfortable driving around with volatile fuel sloshing in tanks that can spontaneously ignite if damaged.
spark123
Detailer

But, you can make biodiesel!!
Tinkerah
Technician

Interesting point I hadn't considered....

Jack_Hagerty
Moderator

This is what I wrote: "Current battery tech, which uses liquids, is basically exhausted. We’re on detail improvements now; there are no “doublings” left. The next generation is a gel battery, with the highest performance found in lithium-polymer (LiPo) types. "

I *think* I know a fair amount about LiPos --- my son is an airsofter so we are always in the process of maintaining these fussy three-celll batteries --- but I am always willing to be educated on the subject!
Tinkerah
Technician

Ah - I'm sorry, I did misread that portion.

spoom
Technician

Anyone who can keep their bitterness in check during this boondoggle is already lost.

Spuds
Advanced Driver

EV is about control.No free travel,"on the bus pleb". But dont worry,your wealthy,truly wealthy connected will be out in their non EV's,bet on it.
gli48
Pit Crew

Excellent article as usual Jack. However, one piece of the EV puzzle was mostly left out. The infrastructure required to charge all of these batteries every day/night. I'm not talking about the home chargers or super chargers but rather the electric power grid and generation plants to provide the power. The "OMG, the scientists are working on that!" crowd are probably the same ones who will be fighting new transmission lines through their neighborhood and insisting that solar power can replace nuclear as base load. In Michigan. In the winter. Yeah. If you live in Alaska, don't sell your dog sled.
brians356
Detailer

And that entire grid will be taken down a millisecond after a bad CME, or an EMP from an Iranian nuke, or a Chinese cyberattack on our grid control. You laugh.
Exsanguinator
Intermediate Driver

I guess the gas pumps won't be working either.
brians356
Detailer

Gas lasts a long time in the 5-gal containers I keep topped off. And my older cars will likely survive an EMP.

spoom
Technician

In a major event,  one can pump gasoline & diesel by hand. Folks are welcome to carry off electricity, too, I suppose, but please bring your own plastic bucket and Faraday cage.

Jack_Hagerty
Moderator

You're absolutely correct, but I wanted to focus on the improbability of the vehicles themselves rather than on the improbability of the entire system.

As you and others have pointed out, decades of orbiting the binary sun of NIMBYism and kleptocracy have rendered America's power grid highly susceptible to failure in normal operation. I suspect that the vast majority of SCIENCE! people don't realize that that the grid is not a battery and that charging up at night requires running additional infrastructure at night, the proposed costs and impacts of said operation having been studied thoroughly by precisely no one.
Harlow2
New Driver

The whole push to EVs seems more like a cash grab to me. Modern ICE vehicles can easily last 20-30 years. Forcing consumers into EVs with batteries that last maybe 10 years will increase the number of times consumers will be forced to purchase a new vehicle.

John Kerry said the U.S. could go zero emissions and it wouldn't do anything. Passenger vehicles only account for about 15% of "greenhouse" gases. If we go 100% EV, you still have 85% of greenhouse gases to contend with and that assumes the increased demand on your electrical grid can be fully powered by wind, solar, hydro, unicorn, rainbow, or some other fantasy.

Then you have CO2 being classified as a greenhouse gas. Every animal on earth exhales CO2. Animals breath oxygen and exhale CO2. Plants absorb CO2 and exhale O2. That is how the earth rebalances itself. If there is excess CO2 in the atmosphere, plant life flourishes, reducing the amount of CO2. When CO2 decreases, plant life decreases. The climate is always changing and will continue to change even if we go back to caveman times and cease living in homes, eating food, wearing clothing, using metal, electronics, or plastics, that are all made with or contain petroleum products.

I was around when everyone had to switch from R12 to R134a because R12 was bad for the environment. Now we are being told R134a is bad and have to switch to R1234yf. The patent for R12 expired around the time we switched to R134a. Now, the patent for R134a is expiring, so we are told to switch to R1234yf. When the patent for R1234yf expires, I'm sure we will be told R1234yz is bad for the environment too and need to use something else.

It is in an advocacy group's interest to exaggerate or even manufacture a crisis. Fear mongering attracts the attention of the public and the media and will drive the public to donate money to that advocacy group so it can "combat" whatever catastrophe it creates.

I have every confidence we will still be here in 12 years even if we rolled back pollution regulations to the ones that existed in 1967.
NITRO450EXP
Instructor

Love the DUNE reference.
One of my Fav's.
Nitro