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Hagerty
Hagerty Employee

Avoidable Contact #93: What if you held a mandatory EV party and nobody came? | Hagerty Media

Start with this: Moore's Law was never a law. It wasn't even a theory. Didn't even make it to hypothesis grade. This is what it was: bunk. If you've never heard of Moore's Law, no worries. We'll get back to it in a moment.
https://www.hagerty.com/media/opinion/avoidable-contact/avoidable-contact-93-what-if-you-held-a-mand...
179 REPLIES 179
SJacobT
Detailer

Perseveration.
Jack_Hagerty
Moderator

Aw man, thanks for clicking on everything I write the minute I write it; I get the feeling I'm your Jodie Foster.
SJacobT
Detailer

Don’t worry - I have laughed at myself for being your troll!
SJacobT
Detailer

It is affectionate, I swear!
SJacobT
Detailer

Electric cars trigger you pretty badly - admit it?
spoom
Technician

They should trigger all free men who don't want to force bad science for political reasons. EVs are like enemas-useful, but highly resented if forced on one for non-medical reasons.
SJacobT
Detailer

I will cower! While you resist, a titan!
spoom
Technician

Great job dancing with the Weeknd during the Super Bowl.😁
OldCarMan
Instructor

Don't get me started on Wweather Warming Change!
🙂
Exsanguinator
Intermediate Driver

So, where should we hang your bag?
spoom
Technician

Would that be so bad?🎖

ModelT
Advanced Driver

That's why I reply with random confusion. I'm more of your Foster Brooks.
1210qtrton
New Driver

well said...so what do we do about it?
Jack_Hagerty
Moderator

At some point in time, people are going to have to consider whether they are willing to become single-issue voters, the way some people are regarding firearms.

Just 20-30 million single-issue voters in this country would sway the balance. One in ten voters.
Swamibob
Instructor

Under ordinary circumstances I would agree with you on the voter idea. But, as we saw in sever recent elections, one side is ready with a lot of (I'd like to use the word fraud here, but will try to let the haters lie and use the word...) shenanigans to sway any vote in the direction they dictate.

I like to hope it won't happen that way, but I do have my fears.
Rider79
Instructor

Trouble is, there are so many important issues. I used to be a single-issue voter (the candidate had to be pro-life). That is still a very critical test. But, as I have aged, I have (maybe?) matured at least a bit, and realize that the views (and history) of the candidate on all of the issues important to me, are what really matter. Others, of course, may be able to, in good conscience, vote single-issue.
BMD4800
Instructor

Single issue votes are often a misnomer applied to those with a firm stance.
Firearms are a good less controversial example, but the differences in that issue across the nation exemplify why our system is representative and a one-size fits all solution rarely works.
What works in NYC or LA, might not in Cheyenne.
spoom
Technician

Too late, that's what the last election was about.
CitationMan
Instructor

Let’s factor in that when they outlaw ICE cars, the electric vehicles will need to be armored. Imagine driving your EV through a neighborhood where the residents can no longer afford any car.
JoeSixPack
Intermediate Driver

Jack, buddy, lighten up. Everything you say is correct, but hear me out:
I love to waste gas. Once, I've spent 50 liters in one and a half hours. 300 kilometers farther, my kids woke up and said: What, we are already there? Yes kids, daddy has the lead foot. All in 12 year old car that was worth 25000 EUR when new. No Taycan can do that, nor will ever be.
However, my city, at 45 degrees north, far from the sea, has seen two days of snow this winter. It wasn't like that when I was a kid. And I hate that. And I'm willing to sacrifice those "200 km/h whole day" trips for that. Me and lot of other folks. There goes your "freedom"...
So, imagine a future like this: there is single-phase charger on every parking spot. There is 350 kW charger on every gas station, right by the road, not at shopping mall half a mile away. And that charger is available whenever you roll in with 5 percent "juice" left.
Now, that Taycan could be driven for 45 minutes, make around 150 km, then "cool down" for 15 minutes. You stretch legs and back (you're old, I know), have a Coke, say "NO" to 11th bag of chips. Then off you go. Trip does not look that bad anymore, heh? And, in 2035, fingers crossed, Taycan's battery will be available in 25000 EUR Skoda or Seat.
Again, I agree that **bleep**ty cars will be mandatory. But let's work on making cars and the infrastructure better, so we can suffer less when it happens. Let's make politicians mandate, incentivize, or whatever it takes, those chargers. Let's mandate 800V batteries. Let's spend top dollar on those moonshot batteries.
And let's enjoy some snow with our grandkids.
Cheers!
TeutonicScot
Intermediate Driver

Joe,
Have you ever been to any 3rd world countries?
I've lived in a number of them in my lifetime and can tell you that EV's will NEVER replace the ICE in those places. Governments in these countries can't even provide electricity to most peoples homes, much less rebuild their entire infrastructure to accommodate a rich man's toy that is charged and created using good ole fossil fuels.
I've been on this orb for 60 years and can't remember a time when there wasn't someone peddling the "we've got to clean up the....." (insert cause of choice), or we're all going to die. The air & water have never been cleaner in my lifetime than they are now.

To me, the whole EV thing is nothing more than elitist push to force people to change the way they live (if you can afford to) to meet some global panic agenda and make themselves feel like they've done something for the betterment of mankind, meanwhile flying around the globe in their jets to pick up Nobel prizes...Hypocrisy at it's highest level.
JakeP
New Driver

You are worried about 3rd world countries? California can't keep the lights on reliably in the summer!
TeutonicScot
Intermediate Driver

Thanks for making my point Jake, yet California is the poster child for telling the rest of the country how they should live.
spoom
Technician

You're not wrong, but the main answer is simpler, the whole movement is about picking winners and losers. After placing your bet on the winners.
TeutonicScot
Intermediate Driver

It's not even placing bets on the winners. It's more like stacking the deck in their favor to reach their desired outcome, the rest of you be damned.
spoom
Technician

That was my point, but I guess I no write goodly. Would "Placing your bet on a game that was decided before it was played" sound better? 😉

TeutonicScot
Intermediate Driver

Certainly does spoomin,
I knew what you meant, but "placing a bet" makes it sound like there's some element of chance in the game, when we know that's not the case here.
Take care.
Rider79
Instructor

Kind of like what the politicians have been doing for the past year, telling some businesses that they had to close, and letting others open.
JoeSixPack
Intermediate Driver

TeutonicScot,
I live in a country where median take-home pay is around 100 USD per week. In a country where, last year, around 30 thousand new cars have been sold, as well as 150 thousand imported used cars. We are not third world, we have plenty of electricity (coal and hydro), but I get your point.

However, even my country could afford those chargers on government expense, in a decade or two. It amounts to few hundred bucks per person. Over decade, it is not that much. Again, what applies to my country does not apply to third world, but, then again, I believe that those countries do not emit too much CO2, because they can't afford to.

Also, I believe in "global panic agenda", just because of my own experience (no snow etc). I'm not "liberal", "progressive", "woke", "elite", "privileged white" or whatever is winning elections in the US at the moment. I just believe in what I see, as well as some hard science.
noah300g
Intermediate Driver

There's no such thing as 'government' expense. The only money the government has is what it takes from its citizens, unless it does the disastrous printing press method, which causes such inflation that the EV's are still unaffordable to most of the citizens whose life savings have been eroded by the bad economics of it all.
TA76
Intermediate Driver

Hard Science - no such thing. some theories work some of the time. Others don't at all.
CitationMan
Instructor

Joe,
All your solutions involve spending other people’s money. What impactful sacrifices are you making every day to get to your desired future? Here’s a quote for you from Glenn Reynolds: “I’ll believe it’s a problem, when the people who say it’s a problem, start acting like it’s a problem”.
JoeSixPack
Intermediate Driver

"What impactful sacrifices are you making every day to get to your desired future"
Nothing, at least regarding cars. I'll spend bucketload of money on heat pump instead of cheap gas heater, for example, but I'm not buying Model 3 over Giulia, for the exact reasons Jack has described. Call me hypocrite, but driving experience is not something that I would sacrifice for snow. However, what I'm personally doing is beside point. I'm saying that I will be forced to take Model 3 over Giulia, and I want "other people" to spend money to make that experience less horrible. That's the point.

And yes, I would vote for that government that would force me to take Model 3, and tax me through the nose in order to save snow. Strange way of thinking, I agree.

Also, please note that I'm not American, and I'm not implying anything about last US elections. But, Jack's article is, ultimately about politics, so we have to touch it.
CitationMan
Instructor

Thank you for your honesty

spoom
Technician

Accept nothing being done in the name of saving the planet will save the planet, it's all just about wealth distribution. For every sacrifice that the US and similar countries are being told they have to make, the rest of the world will continue to increase their population and carbon footprint. Can anyone blame them? Even if all the so-called third world countries only had to meet the most advanced halfway because the most advanced would voluntarily cut off half of their own heads off, it isn't going to make a difference. On top of that, there are so many other things that can change the planet climate that it's a joke to think anyone is going to voluntarily destroy themselves for a political belief furthered by people who don't even follow it themselves. I give you examples like Al Gore and John Kerry, and let you take it from there.
spark123
Detailer

Your heat pump is less efficient than a gas furnace, but more efficient than an electric air conditioner. So your net efficiency is dictated by the amount of heat you need. If you live somewhere where winters are warmer then it swings in your favor. Colder winters, not so much.
BMD4800
Instructor

A heat-pump is an A/C unit that can cycle in reverse.

They aren’t efficient if the exterior ambient temperature is below freezing as the condensation freezes on the coils. They use electric strip heaters to supplement. Our 3 units in the SE couldn’t keep the 3 level modern home over 67 if the temp dropped below 30 outside.
Swamibob
Instructor

Let's not, and say we believe in the Constitution of the United States of America and the most important part of it's text: That of insuring the rights of the individual, over the State or any group. Without the rights of the individual, we are nothing more than serfs or drones, only here to serve our overlords.
A really clever guy (Jack, I need your writing ability here) could make a nice allusion toward the bad old days of Colonization and slavery (not just slavery of Africans, but Slavery of all peoples, as it has been in History over and over again when one people defeated another ) but, I think that would bring even more hate trolls out of the wood work, and just don't need that today.
spark123
Detailer

And where is this power coming from to run the chargers??
The current power grid can't support that!
TA76
Intermediate Driver

dream on
JakeP
New Driver

While the average age of a vehicle on the road is 11 years, that will probably change. We will call it the Cuba effect. If something is unavailable (affordable personal transportation) people will do what ever it takes to have said item. When our 17 year old Honda Pilot died last year, I was faced with either a $4,000 repair bill or a new car. We opted for a new $25,000 Honda Accord. If my only choice had been a $50,000 EV, I probably would have fixed the Pilot. So unless the government bans the sale of gasoline in say 2050, used ICE vehicles will become more valuable, be in service longer and Ford and gm execs will be wondering why government edicts aren't moving cars off their lots.
Spuds
Advanced Driver

Jake,petrol will only be for the Gates level of people.The destruction of the oil economy,mandated,mandates world poverty.
spoom
Technician

The "Like" button usually is sufficient. This time, we need a "mega like" to click on. 

iamwho2k
Pit Crew

Hydrogen, anyone? I think the infrastructure problem can be solved faster than the scientists can build a better battery.
JoeSixPack
Intermediate Driver

You would need massive oversupply of electricity made by "fairies, but on their own schedule" (wind and solar), because electrolysis is horribly inefficient process. Then you would need massive infrastructure, which is hard to build because hydrogen is a **bleep** to deal with. Some of it will be done, because fairies, but not on grand scale required for cars.

Possibly, most efficient way to use hydrogen is to turn it into ammonia, than burn it. Ammonia burns slowly. You could switch coal plants to ammonia, possibly even ships, but not small, quick revving engines.
AG1962
Detailer

1. The costs of whole-fleet battery electrification cannot be borne by private individuals at this point, nor should they. Privatizing transport created more freedom, but also a moral hazard. Now individuals/families are being asked to pay an unexpected and unfair “tax” for the massive shift from trains and trams to the private vehicle (1850-1950). But system-level problems require system-level solutions, not forcing Joe Lunchbox to buy a Bolt or a Tesla.
2. Jack is right: the horror of lithium and cobalt mining, ramped up to produce the number of EVs necessary to replace the North American and European fleets, is not a bearable prospect — not in humanitarian terms, not in environmental terms, not in political terms. An EV fleet is a mirage, a fata morgana: something that looks much closer than it really is thanks to an odd trick of the light. Everyone thinks it is real — until the light, or your viewing angle, shifts.
3. The real solution probably lies in shifting the mix back to far more public transit, the solid and safe kind that runs on rails in cities and between them. Then instead of spending immense amounts of taxpayer dollars on subsidies for auto manufacturers to make a fantasy EV future happen, we’d be investing in shared public infrastructure that benefits every socio-economic class. ICE vehicles would slowly become less common but would still exist for rural, work, delivery, enthusiast, and cross-country driving. EVs should be cheap, short-range, lower-speed urban delivery vehicles and runabouts, and otherwise remain toys for the rich.

OldCarMan
Instructor

There are very good reasons why "public" (taxpayer-funded) transportation has faded by the public. FREEDOM! To go when and where one wants, as often or far, as one likes, with NO outside control. EVs are a control freak wet dream and should be treated as such.
TA76
Intermediate Driver

On number 3 it would require we all live in a 500+ people per acre. Do not like living in that world.
OldFordMan
Detailer

Well Jack, you got the worm can fully opened with this one (and I love it)!