I can’t tell you what the price of oil, bitcoin, or Tesla stock will be 24 hours from now, but I feel absolutely confident in making the following longer-term prediction: You are never going to share the road with a significant number of autonomous vehicles. “Never,” in this case, is a fancy way to say never. Not in the lifetime of anyone reading this column. I am stone-cold certain about this. If you want to contact me and make some sort of bet, I’m your huckleberry—but give me a chance to convince you on the matter first.
Read the full article on Hagerty.com:
Well Done good article. I am in the it’s not going to happen for a long time camp. Algorithms work well solving complicated problems. Throw enough code at the problem to keep solving all the unintended consequences and it will work Engine control modules come to mind. However autonomous cars are a complex problem which are much harder to solve. Current Computers do not work well enough to handle a complex and complicated problem (No complex and complicated are not synonymous.). Will it happen? It’s possible. It could happen.Go down a rabbit hole hard enough and fast enough and you will find the bottom. The question to me is it worth the cost. Could we use the resources for better things. Like Cleaning up the pollutants in the Oceans. World hunger the senseless repeating cycle of poverty in this country etc. just seems we could do better than autonomous cars. Maybe we should revisit Alchemy LOL
Now do electric cars. The problem is not the Motors -those are awesome- or the technology, it's the battery, I can bet a storage container for electric power, with the capacity, ENDURANCE and recharge convenience of a fuel tank is simply impossible. Electrons are inherently unstable, no matter what you do, all they want is to escape away, it's their nature. I'll buy an electric car when one is capable of running the entire 24 heures du Mans either on a single charge or with a 1-minute (being generous) refueling like internal combustion or hybrid cars can. Which will be never.
I was distracted by that magazine cover. I'd pay real money for a magazine that reviewed UFOs and cameras and told me how to make a gun cabinet all in the same issue. The New Yorker has nothing like those Renaissance men.
Why do you just assume that your kids, grand-kid's would WANT this type of life?? Again I would ask you just how **bleep** far down that road are you willing to send your kids and their offspring with all aspects of their lives related to technology? It would appear that you would be willing to sacrifice their abilities to live as THEY chose at the expense of what YOU think the world should look like. I hesitate to guess how many lives would be far less enjoyable or exciting with the vision of everything being controlled by AI and little space for the abilities for humans to do things for themselves; bad or good. One that wishes such lives on others based on their wants and desires usually takes a job in DC to simply control others destinies, not because others want that vision but because people like you think they can make a better life for everyone based upon their desired visions; and now you are projecting those desires onto future generations whether they want them or not. Sorry but I am older than you and there is nothing I wish more than to let all my family have their lives be what they want them to be not what some AI system or conglomerate of politicians and companies determine their future should look like.
"AI improvements are made exponentially"? It sounds impressive, but what does that really mean? AI doesn't exist, and machine learning is progressing at about the rate of processor power increase * improvements in statistical algorithms, which does not equate to "exponential".
The Waymo cars are easy to recognize, and they need human intervention all the time. The "Self-driving" BMW taxis used in Vegas are no better; they can't even pull into a hotel parking lot without help. If the gap between Tesla self-piloting and human driving capability is, let's say, ten units, the Waymos have about 9 units to go.